Thai Rice Exports Plunge 32% in the First Two Months Due to India's Market Return and Increased Global Production
February, 28 2025
Key Factors Behind the Export Decline
India's Market Return - India has resumed full-scale rice exports after a two-year pause, with the highest production in 30 years.
Thai Rice is More Expensive - The average price of Thai 5% white rice is $415-419 per ton, whereas Vietnam's price is $393-397 per ton, and Pakistan's is only $382-386 per ton.
Currency Volatility - Fluctuations in exchange rates make it difficult to set stable rice prices.
US Trade Policy - If the US imposes a 10% import tariff on Thai rice, the price could increase by $100 per ton.
Global Rice Market Situation
India remains the top exporter with 22.50 million tons, a 26.4% increase.
Thailand and Vietnam both export 7.50 million tons, but Thailand's exports declined by 24.2%, while Vietnam's fell by 17%.
Pakistan exports 5.30 million tons, a decline of 18.2%.
The Philippines remains the largest importer at 5.40 million tons, up 1.9%.
China's rice imports increased by 35% to 2.20 million tons.
Solutions for Thai Rice
Reducing Costs - Farmers face rising costs for fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. Government intervention is crucial.
Developing New Varieties - Thailand has the world's lowest rice yield per rai at 400 kg, compared to Vietnam's 800 kg and the US's 1,000 kg. Without improvements, Thailand risks losing more market share.