Thai Exports in 2025 Face Tough Challenges Amid Trade Wars and Global Conflicts
December, 16 2024
2024 Exceeds Expectations: Exports Grow 3.5-4%
Thailand's exports in 2024 ended on a high note, with an expected growth rate of 3.5-4%, surpassing the initial target by 1-2%. The total export value is estimated at $297 billion USD, approximately 10 trillion THB.
2025 Faces Heavy Pressure: TNSC Sets Growth Target at 1-3%
However, 2025 is expected to be a challenging year. The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) has set a modest export growth target of 1-3%, citing two major risk factors that could impact global trade:
1. A New Trade War: "Trump 2.0" Shakes Global Trade
The return of Donald Trump’s "America First" policy could cause significant disruptions to global supply chains. Trump has proposed raising tariffs on Chinese imports by 60% and imposing 10-20% tariffs on other trade-surplus countries, which could lead to instability in global trade. Thailand, as part of the global supply network, may also face indirect consequences.
2. Geopolitical Conflicts: An Unpredictable Risk Factor
Prolonged crises in the Middle East, coupled with escalating tensions between global superpowers, could once again threaten global trade stability. This uncertainty may place downward pressure on the global economy in 2025.
Navigating 2025: Turning Crisis into Opportunity
Chaiyan Charoensuk, Chairman of TNSC, emphasized that Thailand should leverage its strong international relations and strategic position within ASEAN to mitigate risks. By maintaining a neutral stance, avoiding alignment with any major power, and promoting balanced trade cooperation, Thailand can continue to drive exports toward its targets.
Even though Thailand is facing another "giant wave" of global trade challenges, its resilience and adaptability provide a chance to turn crisis into opportunity—ensuring a sustainable pathway for Thai exports in the coming year.